For Medicare brokers & retirement-income advisors
Between now and November, three different agencies publish the numbers your clients will ask you about, on three different dates. Almost everything in circulation before then is a projection — and some of it is last year's figure wearing this year's date.
This page exists so there is one link you can send instead of re-checking. It follows one rule: nothing appears here without a label saying whether it is official or projected, and a source you can go read yourself. When an official figure lands, the projection is replaced in place and the page notes the change — so a link you send a client in August still works in December.
How to read this page. Official means the agency responsible has published it. Projected means someone credible has estimated it and the responsible agency has not published anything. A projection is not a small number that might move slightly — the 2027 COLA projection has already been revised once this summer.
Three agencies, three dates. Your clients experience it as one question.
| What lands | Who publishes it | When |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 Medicare Advantage & Part D landscape | CMS | Mid-to-late September 2026 |
| 2027 Social Security COLA | SSA | October 14, 2026 |
| 2027 Part B premium, deductible & IRMAA brackets | CMS | Autumn, typically November |
| Figure | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 COLA | 3.6% | Projected — The Senior Citizens League, August 12, 2026 |
| Effect on the average benefit | +$69.75/mo | Projected — $1,937.53 → $2,007.28 |
| 2026 COLA, for comparison | 2.8% | Official |
The Senior Citizens League revised this figure down from 3.8% to 3.6% on August 12, 2026, after the July CPI print. It is calculated from CPI-W for July, August and September, so one more month of data remains before SSA sets the official number on October 14.
The part the headline will skip. A COLA is a percentage applied to whatever benefit a person locked in the day they claimed. Two clients receive the same percentage and very different raises. The percentage is set in Washington; the base is set by the claiming date — which is the only one of the two anybody in your office can still do something about.
The 2027 limits are announced alongside the COLA in October. The current-year figures, which still govern every conversation you have before then:
| Situation | 2026 annual limit | Withholding |
|---|---|---|
| Under full retirement age for the whole year | $24,480 | $1 withheld for every $2 above |
| In the year full retirement age is reached | $65,160 | $1 withheld for every $3 above, counting only earnings before the month FRA is reached |
| From the month full retirement age is reached | No limit | None |
Two points that get missed. Withheld benefits are not forfeited — SSA recalculates at full retirement age to credit the months benefits were withheld. And only wages and net self-employment earnings count toward the limit; pensions, annuities, investment income and interest do not.
| Fund | Depletion date | Payable thereafter |
|---|---|---|
| OASI — the retirement fund, on its own | Q4 2032 | 78% |
| OASDI — retirement plus disability, hypothetically combined | Q3 2034 | 83% |
Source: the 2026 Trustees Report, released June 9, 2026. Both dates are correct. They describe different funds, which is why any reference to "the date" should name which fund it means. Depletion is also not zero — the figures in the right-hand column are what continuing payroll tax income covers if Congress does nothing at all.
This is the one section where the 2027 figures are real. CMS published them on July 28, 2026.
| Figure | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| National average monthly bid amount (NAMBA) | $296.05 | Official |
| Base beneficiary premium | $41.33 | Official |
| Annual cap on base beneficiary premium growth | 6% per year | Official — Inflation Reduction Act, through 2029 |
The NAMBA is an enrollment-weighted average of plan bids used to calculate the government subsidy to plans. It is not a premium anybody pays, and it should never be presented to a client as one.
The larger item in that same announcement is not a number: CMS is ending the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration at the close of CY2026, returning to what it calls traditional market conditions in CY2027. We covered what that means for AEP in Medicare Part D in 2027: what CMS changed.
| Figure | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 standard Part B premium | ~$209.50/mo | Projected — 2026 Medicare Trustees Report |
| 2026 standard Part B premium | $202.90/mo | Official |
| Implied increase | ~3.25% | Projected |
| 2027 Part B deductible | Not published | — |
There is no verified 2027 Part B deductible. That is stated plainly here because a specific-looking deductible figure is exactly the kind of number that circulates without a source. If you see one before CMS publishes, it is not sourced.
IRMAA runs on a two-year lookback. The 2027 surcharge is determined by 2025 modified adjusted gross income, which is already fixed for most taxpayers — the planning window for 2027 IRMAA closed last December.
| Tier | 2026 single (official) | 2027 single (projected) | 2026 MFJ (official) | 2027 MFJ (projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard, no surcharge | ≤ $109,000 | ≤ $112,000 | ≤ $218,000 | ≤ $224,000 |
| 1.4× | ≤ $137,000 | ≤ $141,000 | ≤ $274,000 | ≤ $282,000 |
| 2.0× | ≤ $171,000 | ≤ $176,000 | ≤ $342,000 | ≤ $352,000 |
| 2.6× | ≤ $205,000 | ≤ $211,000 | ≤ $410,000 | ≤ $422,000 |
| 3.2× / 3.4× threshold | $500,000 | $500,000 | $750,000 | $750,000 |
2027 projections from The Finance Buff, updated August 12, 2026, under its 3% forward-inflation scenario. The top thresholds are frozen in statute at $500,000 and $750,000, which is why they do not move with inflation.
One caveat worth knowing before you quote these: ten of the eleven monthly data points needed for the 2027 brackets are available — one month is missing because of a government shutdown. The bracket boundaries are therefore firmer than the COLA projection but are still not final.
IRMAA is a cliff, not a slope: one dollar over a threshold applies the surcharge for the entire year. A client whose income fell after a high-income year may be able to file Form SSA-44 to request that Social Security use current income instead. That is a filing to route to their accountant, not one to complete for them. More on the mechanics in IRMAA is a cliff, and it is set two years back.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Deduction per person age 65+ | $6,000 |
| Married filing jointly, both eligible | $12,000 |
| Tax years | 2025–2028 |
| Phase-out begins above (MAGI) | $75,000 single / $150,000 MFJ |
Source: IRS. This is a deduction, not an exemption of Social Security benefits from tax — a distinction worth holding onto, because the two get described interchangeably. Claims that a given share of beneficiaries "pay no tax on benefits" are estimates and should be attributed as such.
The most useful part of tracking these figures is knowing which circulating ones are wrong. Each of the following was found in the wild while building this page.
Stale. $218.60 is a Part B figure from the 2025 Trustees Report. It has been observed dressed up as a 2027 number, and in one case as a 2027 IRMAA first-tier total — which is arithmetically impossible, since a first-tier total sits near $293 on a $209.50 base. Separately, some private forecasters argue the real 2027 premium will land above the Trustees projection; those are opinions about a future announcement, not published figures, and they should not be quoted as either.
Both figures are real and they describe different funds. OASI alone depletes in Q4 2032 at 78% payable; the hypothetical combined OASDI figure is Q3 2034 at 83% payable. Using one date without naming its fund is the single most common error in solvency coverage. Neither date means benefits stop.
Wrong year. The mandate date under Executive Order 14247 was September 30, 2025. SSA has said the final phase completes before the end of calendar 2026, and under 1% of beneficiaries were still receiving paper checks. There is no September 30, 2026 deadline.
Every figure on this page is set by an agency. Your client has no vote on any of them.
The claiming date is the exception. It sets the base that every future COLA multiplies, it changes how much of the benefit counts as income for the IRMAA lookback two years later, and unlike a premium or a bracket, it is decided once and cannot be revisited.
That makes it the one number in a retirement-income conversation that is still open — and the one worth calculating rather than defaulting.
MySSAgent takes a client's actual earnings record and runs every filing month from 62 to 70 against multiple longevity scenarios, then returns a recommended claiming date with the dollars attached — sourced, printed, and the client keeps it. One click through the browser extension. No SSN entered.
See how advisors use it →Sources
This article is educational and is not tax, legal, insurance or compliance advice. Projected figures are estimates published by third parties and are not official until the responsible agency announces them. Plan-specific premiums, IRMAA determinations and eligibility depend on individual circumstances.
